Headline
You're running a small but growing SaaS that's worth somewhere between $42,000 and $128,500 right now — with the most defensible number sitting around $87,400. That spread is wide because your top customer is carrying a lot of weight, and buyers will price in that risk. If you can get that concentration down before you sell, the midpoint number climbs.
Monthly cash to you after Stripe fees, any cost-of-goods, and your $1,500 owner draw: roughly $1,300/mo in net SDE. That's what a buyer is actually buying.
Revenue quality
MRR: $3,010. Month-over-month growth over the last six months has been consistent at 12% MoM — that's real growth, not a one-time spike. Stripe payments show 43 active subscribers paying between $29 and $149/mo. No enterprise contracts, no annual prepays — all monthly recurring, which is both simple and slightly risky (churn is always one cancel-click away).
Your best month was $3,210. Your worst was $2,680. That $530 variance is normal for a solo SaaS at this MRR level — nothing alarming.
Cost structure
Stripe fees on your volume run about $95/mo. You've told me cost-of-goods (hosting, APIs, tooling) is $215/mo. Combined with your $1,500 owner draw, total monthly costs are roughly $1,810, leaving about $1,200 in true SDE before taxes.
One watch item: if your API costs scale linearly with users, the margin picture changes materially as you grow. Worth modeling that before pitching a buyer.
Churn and refund signals
Refund rate sits at 3.1% by transaction count — healthy for B2C SaaS. Industry median is around 2–5%, so you're inside the normal band. No obvious clustering around a particular plan tier or billing date, which suggests the refunds are organic (changed minds) rather than a product problem.
Monthly churn you didn't explicitly share, but the MRR trajectory implies gross churn is somewhere in the 4–6% range. That's fine for early SaaS, but it's the number most acquirers ask about first.
Customer concentration
Red flag: one customer is 35% of your total revenue. That's $1,053/mo from a single account. A buyer will treat this as a contingency — either discounting the purchase price or requiring a 6–12 month earnout tied to that customer staying. You've been warned.
Your next largest customer is 8% of revenue. Everyone else is under 5%. That tail distribution is actually good — diversified base beneath the top account.
Valuation math
Two methods, one answer:
Revenue multiple: $36,120 ARR × 2.4× = $86,700. The 2.4× multiple is conservative for a growing SaaS; market comp for sub-$100k ARR bootstrapped tools is 2–3× currently. Penalized slightly for customer concentration.
SDE multiple: $1,200/mo SDE × 12 = $14,400 annualized SDE × 6.1× = $87,800. The 6× SDE multiple is standard for small recurring-revenue software businesses with 12% growth — it reflects that the business is real but still founder-dependent.
Both methods land within $1,100 of each other. That alignment gives me confidence in the $87,400 midpoint. The $42,000 floor assumes the top customer churns immediately post-sale and growth stalls. The $128,500 ceiling assumes growth continues, concentration resolves, and the buyer pays a slight premium for the customer-acquisition story.
Honest risks
- Single-customer concentration — 35% is above the 25% threshold most serious buyers flag automatically
- No annual contracts — everything is monthly, so a buyer has no locked-in revenue at close
- Founder-dependent — if you're the only one who knows how it works, expect a 3–6 month earnout requirement
- Thin SDE margin — $1,200/mo leaves little room for a buyer to add costs (even a part-time VA) before breaking even
None of these are fatal. They're negotiating points. Know them before a buyer brings them up.